Holiday Food Prices

The holiday season can provoke powerful and profound feelings of nostalgia, and for many, food sits at the heart of these cherished memories. From Thanksgiving turkeys to vegetables to holiday breads and cookies, the cultural and social importance of many foods seems to grow as each year draws to a close.

But while food is a central part of holiday celebrations, it’s also been a hot topic at checkout lines in recent years. Food prices, like many other goods, have been on a roller coaster. According to the USDA, food prices rose 9.9% in 2022 relative to the year prior, the fastest increase since the 1970s. While this broadly mirrored the trend in overall inflation, media headlines highlighted the squeeze on groceries, notably with references to the rising cost of holiday meals.

Yet with expensive holiday feasts fresh on people’s minds, the reality is food prices have largely stabilized this year. Many of the factors that initially caused prices to spike, including supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and increased costs for raw materials, have largely abated. In fact, the price of many agricultural goods has dropped sharply over the past two years. As a result, the UDSA projects , the smallest increase since 2019. Furthermore, most of the 2.3% increase is attributable to food away from home, which is projected to increase 4.1% this year. Food at home is only forecast to increase 1.2% relative to last year. So rejoice, holiday consumers, as this year’s feast costs less after accounting for the nearly 4% wage growth this year.

Think your plate looks different than the average consumer’s? Use our interactive tool below to adjust your plate and find your personalized food inflation over the past several years. Or, examine what it might be in 2025 using USDA estimates.